September 28, 2009
Global leaders have wrapped up their presentations to the United Nations. But the question before their respective constituencies is whether the fanfare that they created will carry forward.
While the UN's global warming experts are all pushing hard to force countries to tackle the reduction of heat-trapping emissions head on, the reality is that key countries are becoming ensnared in their own domestic issues. It likely means that the upcoming talks to take place in Copenhagen in December will result in a launch pad for more serious discussions to occur later as opposed to a time and place where the world made hard and firm commitments to resolve the matter.
"As international negotiations heat up on the way to Copenhagen, all eyes will be on the two largest sources of heat-trapping gases: the United States and China," says Frances Beinecke, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council. "The leaders of both countries indicated that they are prepared to take meaningful action. While the negotiations will be tough, there is still time to bring together developed and developing countries on a strong climate agreement."
Together, those nations make up about 40 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. And while President Obama has stated clearly that this country will not forsake its commitment to cutting such releases, he provided few details.
Political and economic concerns are behind the tactic. While the U.S. House has passed legislation that would implement a cap-and-trade provision to gradually cut carbon emissions along with greater efficiency and renewable energy standards, similar bills now pending in the U.S. Senate are stalled. Beyond the philosophical differences, the country is just now beginning to heal from a long and deep recession and opposition leaders are saying that the added cost of environmental mandates is inappropriate now.
China, meanwhile, has said that it is committed to the cause. Toward that end, it has enacted new renewable and nuclear energy programs, along with those to enhance efficiency. But the country emphasizes that it can ill-afford to match richer nations when it comes to investing in those technologies to minimize emissions while at the same time lifting its own masses out of poverty. As such, it has said it will reduce its fossil fuel usage as percentage of overall gross domestic product.
"We will endeavor to cut carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by a notable margin by 2020 from the 2005 level," says Chinese President Hu Jintao, at the UN meeting in late September. "We will endeavor to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15 percent by 2020."
Soft Commitments
The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has already excoriated the developed world to quit talking and start taking concrete steps to reduce greenhouse gases. During the meeting of world leaders, the chair of that committee along with the its Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon said that the result of inaction would be environmental devastation that would in turn lead to economic hardship for all. It would affect water, food and land and exacerbate poverty and reverse economic gains, they said.
Their remarks were meant to pressure President Obama, who responded with strong words. While this country has been tardy, he did say that will join the developed world and act now to curb its greenhouse gases. Along those lines, he outlined the steps that his administration has already taken and specifically discussed his stimulus measure as well as a new mandatory registry to determine how much carbon is being released.
"We understand the gravity of the climate threat," the president said before the U.N. "We are determined to act. And we will meet our responsibility to future generations."
He called attention to the recently-passed House bill that would require industrial concerns to cut their carbon emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 and then by 80 percent by 2050. But not only has that measure hit a roadblock in the Senate, it has also run headfirst into other serious obstacles. Curing a recession and enacting healthcare reform would be enough for any first-year president. But the odds are -- traditionally -- that the party in power loses seats non-presidential election years.
And that's exactly how the opposition is playing it. If it can delay action on the climate change bill until late 2010, then it could win a de facto victory. Key Republicans say that the enactment of that legislation would cause energy prices to rise. They also say that the developing world, which will comprise most of the future growth in greenhouse gases, must also join the world community or it will gain unfair trade advantages.
But all the "foot-dragging and nay-saying" is not going over well among the Europeans, who have taken the lead on this issue. It has said that the United States is just one of 190 nations coming to Copenhagen, although it accounts for 25 percent of world's greenhouse gas emissions.
"It is suggested that the U.S Senate may not, after all, deal with the climate change issue until next year, when the UN Conference on Climate Change in Copenhagen is over and the delegates have gone home," says John Bruton, head of the European Union delegation. "If this were to happen, it would open the United States to the charge that it does not take its international commitments seriously, and that these commitments will always take second place to domestic politics."
President Obama's powerful words are giving solace to some. But the barriers he now faces is concerning to many others. The reality is that the divide among global and domestic interests won't mend anytime soon -- a proposition that will likely produce tepid results at the upcoming summit on climate change.
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Ken Silverstein EnergyBiz Insider Editor-in-Chief
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